Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-04-11

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-04-01) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 100 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-04-01 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmed cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-01. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-01. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-01. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Reported confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates are shown up to the 2020-04-01. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-01)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-04-01) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country/Region New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Algeria 94 (49 – 138) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -16 (22 – Inf)
Argentina 98 (48 – 145) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -130 (10 – Inf)
Australia 111 (58 – 155) Decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 0.8) -7.3 (Inf – Inf)
Austria 314 (245 – 378) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -19 (740 – Inf)
Azerbaijan 99 (59 – 152) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.8) 11 (5 – Inf)
Bangladesh 71 (35 – 106) Increasing 2.1 (1.4 – 2.9) 4.1 (2.5 – 10)
Belarus 248 (189 – 307) Increasing 1.7 (1.3 – 2) 6.2 (4.4 – 10)
Belgium 1343 (1189 – 1476) Likely increasing 1 (1 – 1.1) 240 (34 – Inf)
Brazil 1731 (1575 – 1908) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 14 (10 – 21)
Cameroon 51 (17 – 84) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -17 (11 – Inf)
Canada 1355 (1223 – 1508) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 200 (33 – Inf)
Chile 383 (317 – 461) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 55 (15 – Inf)
China 85 (39 – 125) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.4) 38 (6.9 – Inf)
Colombia 199 (128 – 256) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 13 (6.5 – 580)
Czech Republic 308 (156 – 456) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.5) 27 (7.1 – Inf)
Czechia 244 (180 – 305) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -61 (23 – Inf)
Denmark 316 (241 – 381) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 110 (16 – Inf)
Dominican Republic 165 (116 – 212) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 26 (8.7 – Inf)
Ecuador 358 (288 – 426) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 23 (9.7 – Inf)
Egypt 180 (111 – 234) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.8) 7.9 (4.8 – 22)
Estonia 49 (11 – 84) Unsure 0.9 (0.5 – 1.3) -17 (8.8 – Inf)
Finland 168 (108 – 229) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 17 (7.1 – Inf)
France 3879 (3650 – 4122) Decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -63 (390 – Inf)
Germany 4608 (4335 – 4867) Decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -32 (Inf – Inf)
Greece 70 (29 – 106) Unsure 0.9 (0.6 – 1.2) -21 (13 – Inf)
Hungary 119 (74 – 156) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 7.6 (4.3 – 33)
India 616 (526 – 713) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.4) 21 (12 – 110)
Indonesia 260 (195 – 318) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 12 (7.2 – 48)
Iran 1978 (1814 – 2144) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 0.9) -21 (Inf – Inf)
Iraq 92 (37 – 137) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 12 (4.9 – Inf)
Ireland 627 (530 – 722) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 12 (8 – 21)
Israel 382 (313 – 455) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 1) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Italy 3748 (3504 – 3966) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -35 (Inf – Inf)
Japan 281 (209 – 340) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 180 (16 – Inf)
Kazakhstan 79 (36 – 122) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.9 – 1.8) 11 (4.5 – Inf)
Kuwait 103 (46 – 147) Increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.9) 8.8 (4.4 – 1300)
Lithuania 48 (16 – 80) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) -25 (8.1 – Inf)
Luxembourg 93 (47 – 136) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 1.1) -16 (23 – Inf)
Malaysia 160 (97 – 215) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -44 (17 – Inf)
Mexico 331 (250 – 396) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 11 (6.9 – 29)
Moldova 118 (63 – 160) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.5) 25 (7.3 – Inf)
Morocco 100 (56 – 147) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 23 (6.8 – Inf)
Netherlands 1009 (882 – 1114) Unsure 1 (1 – 1.1) 670 (34 – Inf)
Norway 139 (89 – 186) Decreasing 0.8 (0.6 – 0.9) -11 (Inf – Inf)
Pakistan 337 (263 – 401) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 16 (8.5 – 270)
Panama 206 (150 – 257) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 20 (8.8 – Inf)
Peru 808 (693 – 907) Increasing 1.7 (1.5 – 2) 5.8 (4.7 – 7.3)
Philippines 193 (138 – 248) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -21 (53 – Inf)
Poland 380 (310 – 453) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 48 (15 – Inf)
Portugal 706 (600 – 801) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -66 (53 – Inf)
Qatar 199 (137 – 256) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 18 (7.6 – Inf)
Romania 351 (281 – 425) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 58 (15 – Inf)
Russia 1193 (1067 – 1326) Increasing 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5) 10 (7.9 – 15)
Saudi Arabia 238 (173 – 295) Increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.5) 15 (7.8 – 170)
Serbia 243 (171 – 302) Likely increasing 1.2 (0.9 – 1.4) 24 (9.5 – Inf)
Singapore 166 (114 – 211) Increasing 1.5 (1.2 – 1.7) 8.3 (5 – 25)
Slovakia 75 (32 – 118) Increasing 1.6 (1.1 – 2.3) 6.9 (3.4 – Inf)
South Africa 85 (43 – 125) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 16 (5.6 – Inf)
South Korea 57 (20 – 94) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1.1) -10 (20 – Inf)
Spain 5599 (5279 – 5829) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 0.9) -22 (Inf – Inf)
Sweden 601 (515 – 696) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 27 (13 – Inf)
Switzerland 641 (539 – 738) Decreasing 0.8 (0.8 – 0.9) -15 (Inf – Inf)
Thailand 80 (32 – 119) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -16 (17 – Inf)
Turkey 3852 (3623 – 4114) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 18 (14 – 24)
Ukraine 174 (122 – 227) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.5) 19 (7.9 – Inf)
United Arab Emirates 307 (236 – 373) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 15 (8.1 – 81)
United Kingdom 4486 (4238 – 4747) Increasing 1.1 (1.1 – 1.2) 67 (33 – 2000)
United States of America 32043 (31375 – 32767) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 61 (44 – 98)
Uzbekistan 81 (33 – 129) Increasing 1.6 (1 – 2.1) 7.3 (3.6 – Inf)

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